Some @charlesfitz thoughts on Fitbit right before their IPO:
1/ Fitbit IPOs tomorrow and this profitable company has a surprising number of skeptics.
2/ They have dominant market share (85%) and their brand is almost synonymous a la Kleenex/Xerox with the fitness tracker category.
3/ 2014 revenue was $745M with $337M in the first quarter of this year. 2014 profits were $132M.
4/ 2014 performance was despite a recall of its high-end Fitbit Force product due to allergic reactions to nickel metal components.
5/ Even with 50+ competitors introduced at CES, they are holding their own. Nike has exited and Jawbone is in its death throes.
6/ The glib takedown is the company is the next Blackberry – http://www.businessinsider.com/fitbit-risks-to-business-before-ipo-2015-6
7/ Apple Watch is touted as a Fitbit killer but it is somewhere between “meh” and an outright flop (heresy I know).
8/ Apple Watch provides a huge price umbrella for Fitbit, whose most expensive product is only $249. Big battery life umbrella too.
9/ Apple Watch is overly complex, inconsistent, slow and, in my view, a Pavlovian notification nightmare.
10/ Apple execs in their chauffeur-driven Bentleys have lost sight of “the rest of us” with Apple Watch.
11/ Apple’s fashion fixation and need for material revenue contribution at Apple scale have perverted the design point.
12/ Fitbit looks good for foreseeable future. Hopefully will be long $FIT tomorrow.
